(6.19) Analysis Of Tungsten Market: Light Supply And Demand Market Stalemate

Last  week, the market was high and stalemate. The prices of major tungsten  products did not change substantially. However, most of them were price-  and market-free. Environmental protection “reviewed” continues. The  smelters in Jiangxi Province stopped producing a lot, while those in  Jiangsu produced tungstate. There  are also a lot of production cuts. Environmental protection has a great  impact on the entire industry chain. Among them, APT's output  constraints have the greatest impact, which makes sales of tungsten  mines impede, and the depletion of terminal demand also makes the  overall consumption of the market poor, so the market Supply and demand are very light at both ends.

The  tungsten ore market has no upward power, and most miners in the  beginning of this week mainly focused on wait-and-see and reluctant  sales. Due to the shrinking profit space, higher mine production costs,  and the large price gap with APT, tungsten mines The  shipping mentality of the companies weakened, and even if there is a  desire to ship, the downstream does not have the will to accept the  disk. By the second half of this week, the market price has been  relatively stable, but some manufacturers' reluctant sales mentality has  weakened, mainly because the second quarter has entered. In the final stage, plus the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, some manufacturers will have some financial pressure. With  the smelter approaching the start of the deadline, many miners are also  worried that the price is difficult to support, active manufacturers to  increase sales, but the downstream interest is still not high, the  seller does not have low prices, so the market transactions Not much.

The  APT market is also operating at a high level, and the price is  insufficiently motivated. The manufacturers' quotation is still at more  than 180,000 yuan per ton. Market transactions also center around this  price, but the market has high transaction prices. It is difficult for  the downstream manufacturers to have sufficient inventory, and secondly,  risk aversion awareness. Stronger  to dare to make up for the bill, in fact, the price rise of APT has  reached a greater degree of risk, and it is normal for fears to  strengthen.

After  entering the month of June, the number of smelters that have stopped  production has increased. There are very few smelters that can normally  produce in the Shuozhou region, and almost all of them are shut down. In  this case, the supply of APT is further reduced. If manufacturers can  still consume the stock last month, In  this month, stocks have basically been exhausted. Manufacturers can  produce a lot of production capacity is occupied by long-term orders,  the supply of goods on the market is limited, so APT prices have the  possibility of falling prices, but there is no significant downside  negative factors. And  at present, the time for re-production is still not fully determined.  Several smelters stated that the start of production may be around the  20th, but this is only expected and cannot be determined.

In  summary, last week the market was considered excessive and the market  supply and demand were tight at both ends. Most of the manufacturers  still took a wait-and-see attitude. Environmental inspection remains an  uncertain factor. After a small holiday has passed, whether there will  be a smelter to resume production requires attention. If  the smelter starts production smoothly, the supply shortage of APT will  be alleviated. However, due to the production cycle, it will not be  eased immediately. With the previously saved orders, the supply of APT  will still be tight. However,  this does not mean that the market will remain indifferent, because the  smelter's resumption of production itself is an influential factor for  the market, and it will not rule out the possibility of manufacturers  releasing the goods.